Which media are growing?
Which media are shrinking?
According to Veronis Suhler Stevenson (VSS), a leading private equity firm dedicated to the information, education and media industries and their Communications Industry Forecast (CIF) – 15 media industries will grow between 2009-2013 while 10 media industries will shrink.
From the VSS Forecast:
VSS predicts that total communications spending will decline 1% in 2009 to $882.6 billion, but grow 3.6% per year over the next five years to over $1 trillion making communications the third fastest-growing sector of the U.S. economy over that period. Segments driven by end user spending and targeted marketing services are gaining even as traditional advertising is shrinking.
2008 and 2009 witnessed a major shift in the spending patterns in the communications industry as advertising became the smallest of the four major sectors in 2008 — a first for advertising since VSS began tracking the industry in 1986. While this period culminated a decade-long trend away from traditional advertising vehicles and towards institutional and consumer end-user spending and marketing services, it also highlighted the emergence of institutional and consumer communications as the dominant sectors in U.S. communications spending. VSS forecasts that the institutional sectors and various alternative media segments will drive overall communications spending for the next five years. More specifically, institutional end-user spending will remain the largest and fastest-growing communications sector, rising by 5.6% annually as a result of strong gains in business information services, particularly in the marketing and financial services sub-segments, and the for-profit higher education sub-segment of educational and training media and services. Alternative marketing segments – including branded entertainment and word-of-mouth marketing – will grow at 12.6% annually from 2008-2013 and will contribute to overall marketing services spending growth of 3.4% annually in the period 2008-2013.